Poetic justice for Trump?
Or, what does it take to get arrested in New York?
As I write this, Donald Trump hasn’t yet been arrested, although I suspect (and rather hope) that by the time you get to read it, he will have been.
Speaking as an interested observer of the US political scene (ever since I did A Level Politics at a time when Jimmy Carter was handing the White House keys to Ronald Reagan - and yes I know, that dates me), I find myself wondering why it has taken so long for the old boy to have his collar felt by the authorities.
I suspect there are two reasons: 1. Because Trump has predicted the timing. By delaying the arrest it shows he’s wrong yet again. And 2. They want to be sure that there’s no way he can use it to his political advantage. And given his legendary ability to make up whatever he thinks will play well with his MAGA power base, they will need to have to have a cast iron case; one that he cannot spin into presenting him as the victim. Rather it needs to show that he is a clear-cut criminal. A bit like getting Al Capone for tax evasion. And it will be interesting to see if his MAGA meatheads will have his back if he is indicted. I rather think not; they do appear to have learned the lessons of January 6th – if you take part in insurrectionist protest, you’re liable to get arrested yourself. As I understand it, the only protest so far in New York has been against Trump. Hopefully that will give the District Attorney Alvin Bragg the reassurance he needs to crack on with the indictment.
Nabbing Trump for falsely accounting the Stormy Daniels payoff clearly doesn’t touch the sides of his potential criminal liability (inflating asset values, taking classified documents, inciting insurrection – and those are just the other ones under investigation), but it does have the benefit of being unambiguous and relating to personal rather than political behaviour. So I wish Mr Bragg and his team well and trust that they get Trump cuffed and incarcerated as soon as possible. As I say, hopefully by the time you read this, he will have been arrested and charged, and it hasn’t all gone south.
Surprisingly, being indicted and convicted doesn’t stop him running for president again. Which then begs the question, can he win the republican nomination? And if not Trump, then who? Would it be better to have Ron De Santis, Mike Pence, or maybe Nikki Haley squaring up to Joe Biden? Although Joe will be 82 in November 2024 – can I go out on a limb and say he’s maybe a little too old? Maybe let Kamala have a go?
For me, the defining factor here is toxic Christianity, which seems to be underpinning American conservative politics. In America, you can’t be elected if you’re a rational secularist – whereas in the UK, it seems to be the opposite; committed Christians are viewed with suspicion. Look at the questions raised when a Christian called Kate Forbes announced she was running for the Scottish National Party leadership.
So if Christianity is so pivotal, where does ‘the Donald’ stand? I think he will continue to channel the christo-fascist agenda, but I do question whether he actually believes in it. Or if he is cynically using it to build his support in the red states.
And what of the other contenders? I understand Ron De Santis and Mike Pence are both on the far-right christo-fascist wing of the party, which seems hell-bent on turning America into a Christian theocracy and imposing their limited view of biblical ‘morality’ on the rest of the population. And what of Nikki Haley? Apparently she is a convert to Christianity, which means she might be a christo-fascist simply to play to the right-wing republican base. Which makes me ask if these people know that theocracies never work in the long term? Just look at how the brave women of Iran are pushing back, or those in Saudi Arabia. Or even the domestic protests against Netanyahu’s right-wing theocratic government. Theocrats like these Republican right-wingers don’t seem to realise that secularisation is taking over, and their movement is no more than a last-ditch attempt to push back the tide.
But back to Trump. What if the worst does happen? What if he does secure the nomination – and then the presidency? To say the world would be fucked – sorry, in deep trouble – would be a statement of the blinding obvious. The other republican contenders may be driven by a belief that their bronze-age fairy tales need to be imposed on America, but at least, one hopes, they will have a modicum of political common sense and statesmanship when it comes to world issues. Maybe when faced with the reality of foreign policy, they will see sense. Even Ron De Santis might become pragmatic when it comes to dealing with Putin. But ‘the Donald’? No doubt he will go back to making politically illiterate, on-the-hoof decisions that could precipitate disastrous consequences for us all.
Although there is one final thought here. Maybe a Trump nomination might be just what the Democrats actually need? Could it be their best opportunity to ensure a victory for common sense and rationality? The electorate has rejected Trump once already, and may be even less keen to have him back in the White House. In 2016 he came in as a political outsider, promising to ‘drain the swamp’ – has he now shown just how corrupt a politician he is as well? It might be a bit of Russian roulette – he could sneak in like he did in 2016 – but maybe that’s a risk worth taking? Especially if there’s a genuine criminal conviction against him and he’s spending some quality campaign time behind bars.
Either way, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens in Manhattan. If nothing else, the sight of a man who led playground chants of ‘lock her up’ being led into court in handcuffs would be justice of the most poetic kind.
To borrow a concept from Trump himself – you couldn’t make it up.
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